đŸ”— Share this article A Prediction Market Participant Made $436,000 from Bets on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Forecasts Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the close of the month increased in the time leading up to former President Trump stated on the weekend that the president had been seized. A particular user, which joined the platform recently and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436,000 from a starting bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Platform data shows that participants put the odds of the president's removal at just under 7% in the midday period of the prior Friday. Yet the market's assessment had increased to over 10% by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in positions immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a trade based on inside information," stated a financial reform advocate. A handful of other platform users also made tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Political Attention Intensifies Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. A new rule put forward on recently aims to prohibit federal workers from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a bet. Market Background Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years, with traders able to predict everything from elections to political events. This sector faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting industry. A company executive for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."